The Chokepoints Are All in the Middle
Plot every material twice — once by where it is mined, once by where it is processed — and the same pattern appears for all of them.
Ore to Vehicle · Part 4 — Structure and Commerce · Chapter 11 · 14 min read
Part 4 — Structure and Commerce
One chart that summarises everything
Plot every material twice — once by where it is mined, once by where it is processed — and the same pattern appears for all of them.
Extraction is spread across the world. Conversion is not. That is the finding this whole series has been building toward, and it holds without a single exception.
11
Materials plotted
0
Below the diagonal
~98 %
Graphite anode, the worst case
mid-2026
Shares as of
11.1 — Everything sits above the diagonal
Every material is above the line, meaning midstream is more concentrated than upstream in every case. Graphite anode and rare earth magnets sit in the top-right corner — concentrated at both ends, with no meaningful alternative supply.
11.2 — Where each chain binds
| Material | Mining leader | Mine share | Refining leader | Refining share | Where it binds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | Chile | ~23 % | China | ~45 % | Smelter overcapacity, TC/RC at zero |
| Aluminium | Australia / Guinea (bauxite) | ~25 % each | China | ~60 % | Electricity price and carbon intensity |
| Lithium | Australia | ~50 % | China | ~65 % | Conversion, not mining |
| Nickel | Indonesia | >55 % | Indonesia / China | ~65 % | Class 1 battery-grade sulfate |
| Cobalt | DR Congo | ~75 % | China | ~78 % | Both ends, plus ASM traceability |
| Graphite (natural) | China | ~80 % | China (anode) | ~98 % | Spheroidisation and coating |
| Rare earths | China | ~70 % | China (separation) | ~90 % | Separation cascade and magnet making |
| Manganese | South Africa | ~37 % | China (HPMSM) | ~95 % | High-purity sulfate |
| Fluorspar | China | ~65 % | China (HF, LiPF₆) | ~80 % | Electrolyte salt and PVDF binder |
| Phosphate | China (output) / Morocco (reserves) | ~40 % | China (PPA) | ~85 % | Purified acid, competes with fertiliser |
| Silver | Mexico | ~24 % | China / dispersed | moderate | Byproduct — supply ignores price |
11.3 — How precise these numbers are
Important
Shares are approximate and move year to year with new capacity, policy and price. Treat them as orders of magnitude, not as a ledger.
What is durable is the structure: that the midstream concentrates more than the upstream, and that the ranking of which chains are most exposed changes far more slowly than the individual percentages do.
Quick check: test yourself
1.Which two materials are concentrated at both ends, and why does that matter?
Show answer
2.Copper mining is only 23 per cent concentrated. Why is it still on a chokepoint chart?
Show answer
Chapter summary
- ✓Every material sits above the diagonal: midstream concentration exceeds upstream concentration without exception.
- ✓Graphite anode and rare earth magnets are concentrated at both ends and have no meaningful alternative supply.
- ✓Almost no chain binds at the mine — they bind at conversion, purification, separation or, for copper, at an overbuilt smelting stage.
- ✓The percentages move year to year; the structure does not.
Frequently asked questions
What single chart summarises the whole supply-chain problem?+
Top-country share of mining plotted against top-country share of refining. Every material sits above the diagonal, meaning the midstream is more concentrated than the upstream in every case without exception. Graphite anode and rare earth magnets sit in the top-right corner — concentrated at both ends, with no meaningful alternative supply.
Which chains bind at the mine and which bind downstream?+
Almost none bind at the mine. Copper binds on smelter overcapacity with TC/RCs at zero; lithium binds on conversion rather than mining; nickel binds on Class 1 battery-grade sulfate; graphite binds on spheroidisation and coating; rare earths bind on the separation cascade and magnet making; manganese binds on high-purity sulfate; phosphate binds on purified acid that competes with fertiliser. Cobalt is the closest to binding at both ends, at roughly 75 per cent mining and 78 per cent refining, plus artisanal traceability.
How precise are these shares?+
Not very, and they should not be treated as a ledger. They move year to year with new capacity, policy and price. What is durable is the structure — that the midstream concentrates more than the upstream, and that the ranking of which chains are most exposed changes far more slowly than the individual percentages do.
Reviewed by
Ore to Vehicle is an original educational series on the battery and EV materials supply chain. Country shares, grades, prices and policy status are approximate, drawn from public reporting as of mid-2026, and move year to year — treat them as orders of magnitude rather than as a ledger, and verify before relying on them commercially.