Abundance, Geochemistry and Why Cost Is a Periodic Property
Elemental abundance was set by nucleosynthesis and then sorted by Earth’s differentiation. Read down the abundance column and the trajectory of the battery industry is legible in advance.
The Periodic Table of the EV · Part 5 — Beyond the Cell · Chapter 12 · 20 min read
Cost looks like an economic variable. Over a long enough horizon it is a periodic one — because in a mature commodity industry, material cost converges toward extraction cost, which converges toward crustal abundance and ore concentration.
Read down the abundance column and the trajectory of the battery industry over the next two decades is legible in advance. Most of it has already started.
2,250×
Iron’s abundance over cobalt
1,180×
Sodium’s over lithium
~70 %
Cobalt supply from the DRC
0.4 ppb
Iridium — the hydrogen bottleneck
12.1 — Nucleosynthesis sets the baseline
Elemental abundance is not arbitrary. It reflects how the elements were made in stars.
- •Light elements up to iron form by fusion, which releases energy. Iron-56 has the highest binding energy per nucleon, so fusion stops there — which is why iron is abundant and everything heavier is rare.
- •Elements heavier than iron require energy input — supernovae and neutron-star mergers — so they are orders of magnitude scarcer.
- •Lithium, beryllium and boron are anomalously rare for their low atomic number, because they are destroyed in stellar interiors rather than made there. Most lithium comes from Big Bang nucleosynthesis and cosmic-ray spallation.
Important
Lithium’s scarcity is written into the physics of stars. At 20 ppm it is rarer than nickel at 84 and copper at 60, despite being the third element in the periodic table. No mining innovation changes that baseline.
12.2 — Goldschmidt — where elements ended up on Earth
The Goldschmidt classification sorts elements by the phase they preferentially entered during Earth’s differentiation — and it explains the industry’s supply structure more directly than any market analysis.
| Class | Meaning | Where they went | EV-relevant members |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithophile | “Rock-loving” | Bond with oxygen; concentrated in the silicate crust | Li, Na, K, Mg, Ca, Al, Si, Ti, Mn, the rare earths |
| Chalcophile | “Ore-loving” | Prefer sulfur; found in sulfide ores | Cu, Zn, Pb, and partly Ni and Co |
| Siderophile | “Iron-loving” | Dissolved in metallic iron and sank into the core | Ni, Co, and the platinum group |
| Atmophile | Volatile | In the atmosphere | H, N, noble gases |
12.2.1 — What that explains
- •Lithium is lithophile — concentrated in crustal pegmatites (spodumene) and evaporitic brines. Reachable, but geologically localised, which is the origin of the Australia/Chile/Argentina concentration.
- •Nickel and cobalt are siderophile and chalcophile — most of Earth’s inventory is in the core, unreachable. Crustal deposits are sulfide and laterite ores.
- •Iron, manganese, aluminium and phosphorus are abundant lithophiles — which means LFP’s cost advantage is geochemical destiny rather than a manufacturing achievement.
- •Platinum and iridium are siderophile — 5 ppb and 0.4 ppb crustal abundance. This is why hydrogen fuel cells face a materials ceiling that batteries do not.
Why this matters
The cobalt point deserves emphasis, because it is routinely misunderstood as a political problem. Cobalt is almost always a byproduct of copper or nickel mining rather than the primary target.
That means you cannot scale cobalt production independently of copper demand. It is a structural, geochemical constraint on supply elasticity that no amount of investment fixes quickly — and it is why designing cobalt out proved faster than mining more of it.
12.3 — The abundance table
Crustal abundance, class and EV role
| Element | Abundance (ppm) | Class | EV role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oxygen | 461,000 | — | Cathode framework |
| Silicon | 282,000 | Lithophile | Power electronics, anode additive |
| Aluminium | 82,300 | Lithophile | Collector, structure, NCA dopant |
| Iron | 56,300 | Lithophile/siderophile | LFP, steel, magnets |
| Calcium | 41,500 | Lithophile | Candidate chemistry |
| Sodium | 23,600 | Lithophile | Na-ion |
| Magnesium | 23,300 | Lithophile | Candidate, alloys |
| Potassium | 20,900 | Lithophile | Candidate |
| Titanium | 5,650 | Lithophile | LTO, dopant |
| Phosphorus | 1,050 | Lithophile | LFP, electrolyte salt |
| Manganese | 950 | Lithophile | NMC, LMO |
| Fluorine | 585 | Lithophile | Salt, binder, SEI |
| Carbon | 200 | — | Anode, additive, binder |
| Nickel | 84 | Siderophile/chalcophile | NMC, NCA |
| Copper | 60 | Chalcophile | Collector, windings |
| Neodymium | 28 | Lithophile | Magnets |
| Cobalt | 25 | Siderophile/chalcophile | NMC, NCA |
| Lithium | 20 | Lithophile | The charge carrier |
| Dysprosium | 5.2 | Lithophile | Magnet coercivity |
| Platinum | 0.005 | Siderophile | Fuel cells |
| Iridium | 0.0004 | Siderophile | Electrolysers |
12.4 — What this predicts about the future
- •LFP gains share. Iron, phosphorus and manganese are three to four orders of magnitude more abundant than cobalt. LFP was always going to win the cost-sensitive segment; the only question was whether nano-engineering could fix its conductivity and 1-D diffusion problems. Chapter 9 showed that it did.
- •Cobalt is engineered out. The direction NMC111 → 811 → cobalt-free is set by geochemistry and executed by crystal chemistry, using Al, Mg, Ti and Zr dopants to replace cobalt’s structural role.
- •Sodium-ion is inevitable somewhere. A thousandfold abundance advantage will find an application — most likely stationary storage and cold-climate or low-cost mobility, where its energy-density deficit is tolerable.
- •Manganese-rich chemistries are the live compromise. Manganese is 38 times more abundant than cobalt, and LMFP raises LFP’s voltage from 3.45 V toward 3.8–4.1 V using the same inductive-effect trick from chapter 5 with a manganese redox centre.
- •Rare-earth-free motors get sustained investment. Dysprosium at 5.2 ppm cannot support a billion-vehicle fleet, whatever the price.
In plain English
The general principle: the periodic table is a long-run price forecast. Chemistries built on abundant elements win the volume segments. Chemistries built on scarce elements retreat to applications that can pay for performance. Neither outcome requires anyone to make a good decision — it happens through cost.
Technical framing
One caveat worth stating. Abundance sets the floor, not the price today. Extraction cost also depends on ore grade, on whether an element is a primary product or a byproduct, on refining capacity, and on where processing is located — which is why lithium at 20 ppm and cobalt at 25 ppm behave completely differently in a market, and why refining capacity has recently mattered more than reserves.
Quick check: test yourself
1.Why does high cobalt demand not simply produce more cobalt mines?
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2.LFP is cheaper than NMC. Is that a manufacturing achievement or something else?
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3.Lithium is 20 ppm and cobalt is 25 ppm — nearly identical. Why do they behave so differently in the market?
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Chapter summary
- ✓Abundance was fixed by nucleosynthesis: fusion stops at iron-56, so heavier elements are rare — and Li, Be and B are anomalously rare because stars destroy them.
- ✓The Goldschmidt classification explains the supply map: lithophile lithium is reachable but localised; siderophile nickel, cobalt and the platinum group mostly sank into the core.
- ✓Cobalt is a byproduct of copper and nickel mining, so its output cannot be scaled independently — which is why the industry designed it out rather than mined more.
- ✓LFP’s cost advantage is geochemical, not industrial. The industrial achievement was making a 10⁻⁹ S/cm material work at all.
- ✓The periodic table is a long-run price forecast — but abundance sets the floor, while ore grade, byproduct status and refining capacity set today’s price.
Frequently asked questions
Why is lithium scarce despite being the third element?+
Because it is destroyed in stars rather than made in them. Elements up to iron form by fusion, which releases energy, and iron-56 has the highest binding energy per nucleon so fusion stops there — which is why iron is abundant and everything heavier is rare. But lithium, beryllium and boron are anomalously rare for their low atomic number because stellar interiors consume them; most lithium comes from Big Bang nucleosynthesis and cosmic-ray spallation. At 20 ppm, lithium is rarer than nickel at 84 and copper at 60. Its scarcity is written into the physics of stars.
Why can’t cobalt production simply be scaled up?+
Because of where it sits in the Goldschmidt classification. Cobalt is siderophile and chalcophile, meaning most of Earth’s inventory dissolved into metallic iron and sank into the core during differentiation, leaving only sulfide and laterite crustal deposits. Worse, cobalt is almost always a byproduct of copper or nickel mining rather than the primary target, so you cannot scale cobalt output independently of copper demand. That is a structural geochemical constraint on supply elasticity, not a shortage of investment, and no amount of capital fixes it quickly.
Is LFP’s cost advantage permanent?+
Largely, because it is geochemical rather than industrial. Iron at 56,300 ppm, phosphorus at 1,050 and manganese at 950 are three to four orders of magnitude more abundant than cobalt at 25. In a mature commodity industry, material cost converges toward extraction cost, which converges toward crustal abundance and ore concentration. LFP was always going to win the cost-sensitive segment; the only real question was whether nano-engineering could fix its conductivity and one-dimensional diffusion problems, and it did.
What does the abundance table predict about future chemistries?+
Several things that are already happening. Cobalt gets engineered out, with crystal chemistry using aluminium, magnesium, titanium and zirconium dopants to replace cobalt’s structural role. Manganese-rich chemistries such as LMFP and LMR become the compromise, since manganese is 38 times more abundant than cobalt and LMFP lifts LFP’s 3.45 V toward 3.8 to 4.1 V using the same inductive-effect trick with a manganese redox centre. Sodium-ion finds an application somewhere, because a thousandfold abundance advantage always does. And rare-earth-free motors get sustained investment, because dysprosium at 5.2 ppm cannot support a billion-vehicle fleet.
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The Periodic Table of the EV is an original educational series on the materials science of electric vehicles. All values are standard-condition literature figures for representative materials, not measured data from a specific product, and sources differ on several of them. Always verify against the specific material datasheet in use before making design, purchasing or certification decisions.